Fate has no memory

Fate has no memory. The fact that you have suffered greatly in the past does not imply that you will suffer less in the future or you will be rewarded.

This is another way to counter gambler’s fallacy, which is believing if there is a succession of the same outcome, the next outcome will be different. However, when each event is independent and random, the dice can keep rolling the same number.

The impossible happened

Richard Russell reports: Many years ago, when I was still living in NYC, I had a subscriber, a Swiss man named Jay Pfister. Jay owned a chemical company. During the early 1930s Jay sold his company to American Cyanamid. That sale made Jay quite wealthy, and he had a home in NYC and one in La Jolla. It was Jay who first told me about La Jolla. Jay suggested that I leave Manhattan and enjoy “a better life” in La Jolla. I thought a lot about Jay’s advice. In 1961 I followed his advice, and it proved to be one of the best pieces of advice I’ve ever received.

One day I met Jay at the Plaza Hotel on 59th Street. We were sipping coffee, when Jay said, “I want to tell you an interesting story. My apartment overlooks the Hudson River. Last Sunday I was looking out over the Hudson, and I saw two large boats heading towards each other. They continued to close in on each other, and I said to myself, ‘This is ridiculous’. The captains must be drunk. If they continue on this path, they’re surely going to crash.”

I looked wide-eyed and asked Jay, “So what happened?”

Answered Jay, “The ‘impossible’ happened. The two boats continued toward each other, and they crashed.”

Logical fallacies

Inverse question

Taleb asks: “You are rich, how come you are not smart?”
I ask: “You are poor, how come you are smart?”
Answer: I chose not to accumulate.